This year at the American Society of Criminology I will be presenting some work from my dissertation, Quantifying the Local and Spatial Effects of Alcohol Outlets on Crime. I have the working paper posted on SSRN, and that also has a link to download data and code to reproduce the findings in the paper.
I will be presenting at the panel Alcohol and Crime on Wednesday at 9:30 (at the Cambridge room on the 2nd level).
Here is the abstract:
This paper estimates the relationship between alcohol outlets and crime at micro place street units in Washington, D.C. Three specific additions to this voluminous literature are articulated. First, the diffusion effect of alcohol outlets is larger than the local effect. This has important implications for crime prevention. The second is that in this sample the effects of on-premise and off-premise outlets are very similar in magnitude. I argue this is evidence in favor of routine activities theory, in opposition to theories which emphasize individual alcohol consumption. The final is that alcohol outlets have large effects on burglary, despite the fact that alcohol outlets cannot increase the number of vulnerable targets, as it can with interpersonal crimes. I discuss how this can either be interpreted as evidence that alcohol outlets self-select into already crime prone areas, or potentially that the presence of motivated offenders’ matters much more than increasing the number of potential victims.
The most interesting finding is the fact that I estimate the diffusion effect of alcohol outlets is larger than the local effect. I then show that this is the case for some other papers as well, it is just interpreting the regression model is tricky. Here is a diagram showing what happens. The idea is the regression coefficient for the spatial lag is one orange dot, and the local effect is the blue dot. Adding a bar though diffuses to multiple places, so when adding up all the smaller orange dots, they result in more crime than the one bigger blue dot.
Posted by apwheele on November 14, 2016
I will be presenting at the ACJS (Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences) conference in Denver in a few days. My talk will be on some of the work I have been conducting with the Albany Police Department via the Finn Institute (Rob Worden and Sarah McLean are co-authors on the presentation). The title is Making stops smart: Predicting arrest rates from discretionary police stops at micro places in Albany, NY and here is the abstract:
Police stops are one of the most invasive, but regularly used crime control tactics by police. Similar to how focusing police resources at hot spots of crime can improve police efficiency, here we examine the spatial variation in arrest rates at micro places (street segments and intersections) in Albany, NY. Using data from over 240,000 discretionary police stops, we fit random effects logistic regression models to predict the probability of an arrest at different micro places. We show that like hot spots, there are examples of high arrest rate locations next to low arrest rate locations. Using a simulation, we show that if one displaced stops from low arrest locations to high arrest locations, one could make half as many stops but still have the same number of total arrests.
Here is a funnel chart of the arrest hit rates at micro-places across the city. You can see quite a bit of extra variation in arrest rates to attempt to explain.
I am giving this at 8 am on Thursday (see Event #185 in the program)
There will be two other presentations at the moment (Ling Wu is not going to make it), and they are:
- Results from a victim generated crime mapping software, Zavin Nazaretian et al. – Indiana University of PA
- Spatial analysis of aggravated assault and homicide crime scene, arrest and offender residence locations in Houston, TX, Elishewah Weisz – Sam Houston
So if you are interested in crime mapping stuff it should be a good session.
Feel free to bug me if you see me around at ACJS.
Also before I forget, my co-workers are presenting a poster on analysis of Syracuse Truce – a focused deterrence gang intervention. The posters are on Friday, so I won’t be around unfortunately. The title is Gangs, groups, networks, and deterrence: An evaluation of Syracuse Truce. (See poster #45 in the same program I linked to earlier.) Rob and Kelly will at least be manning the poster though – so you can go and bug them about the details!
Here is a picture of the reach of call-ins for one particular gang. The idea is for those who attended call ins to spread the message to other members. So this graph evaluates how well the call-ins would be expected to reach all of the members of the gang.
If you are wondering what I do for my job – yes I pretty much just make maps and graphs all day long 😉
Posted by apwheele on March 28, 2016
Part of the work I am doing with the Finn Institute in collaboration with the Albany Police Department was accepted as a presentation at the upcoming IACA conference in Seattle next week. The NIJ used to have a separate Crime Mapping conference, but they folded it into the yearly IACA conference. So this is one of the NIJ Crime Mapping presentations.
The title of the presentation is Making Field Stops Smart, and below is the abstract:
Mapping hot spots of crime incidents for use in allocating patrol resources has become commonplace. This research is intended to extend the logic to mapping locations of field interviews. The project has two specific spatial analysis components; 1) are most of the stops being conducted a high crime locations, and 2) are locations with the most stops the locations with the most productive stops (in terms of arrests, contraband recovery, stopping chronic offenders). Making stops smart is being conducted as a research partnership between the Albany, NY police department and the Finn Institute of Public Safety.
The time of the presentation is at 15:30 on Thursday 9/11. Two other presenters, Eric Paull from Akron, Ohio and Christian Peterson from Portland, Oregon have presentations on the panel as well (see the IACA agenda for their talk abstracts).
I am uncomfortable publicly releasing the pre-print white papers given the collaboration (Rob Worden and Sarah McLean are co-authors) and because that APD’s name is directly attached to the work. But if you send me an email I can forward the white paper for this presentation and related work we are doing.
If you see me at IACA feel free to come up and say hi. I do not have any other plans while I am in town besides going to presentations.
Posted by apwheele on September 8, 2014
The defense date for my prospectus, What we can learn from small units of analysis, is finally set, November 1st at 9:30 (location TBD). You can find an electronic copy of the prospectus here and below is the abstract. So bring your slings and arrows (and I’ll bring some hydrogen peroxide and gauze?)
What we can learn from small units of analysis Andrew Wheeler Prospectus Defense 11/1/2013
The dissertation is aimed at advancing knowledge of the correlates of crime at small geographic units of analysis. I begin the prospectus by detailing what motivates examining crime at small places, and focus on how aggregation creates confounds that limit causal inference. Local and spatial effects are confounded when using aggregate units, so to the extent the researcher wishes to distinguish between these two types of effects it should guide what unit of analysis is chosen. To illustrate these differences, I propose data analysis to examine local, spatial and contextual effects for bars, broken windows and crime using publicly available data from Washington D.C. I also propose a second set of data analysis focusing on estimating the effects of various measures of the built environment on crime.
Posted by apwheele on October 1, 2013
Partly because I would go crazy if I worked only on my dissertation, I started a paper about visualizing JTC flow lines awhile back, and I am going to present what I have so far at the American Society of Criminology (ASC) meeting at Atlanta this fall.
My paper is still quite rough around the edges (so not quite up for posting to SSRN), but here is the current version. This actually started out as an answer I gave to a question on the GIS stackexchange site, and after I wrote it up I figured it would be worthwhile endeavor to write an article. Alasdair Rae has a couple of viz. flow data papers currently, but I thought I could extend those papers and write for a different audience of criminologists using journey to crime (JTC) data.
As always, I would still appreciate any feedback. I’m hoping to send this out to a journal in the near future, and so far I have only goated one of my friends into reviewing the paper.
Posted by apwheele on May 26, 2013
At the American Society of Criminology conference in Chicago in a few weeks I will be presenting (I can’t link to the actual presentation it appears, but you can search the program for Wheeler and my session will come up). Don’t take this as a final product, but I figured I would put out there the working paper/chapters of my dissertation that are the motivation for my presentation and my current set of slides.
Here is my original abstract I submitted a few months ago, The title of the talk is The Measurement of Small Place Correlates of Crime;
This presentation addresses several problems related with attempting to identify correlates of crime at small units of analysis, such as street segments. In particular the presentation will focus on articulating what we can potentially learn from smaller units of analysis compared to larger aggregations, and relating a variety of different measures of the built environment and demographic characteristics of places to theoretical constructs of interest to crime at places. Preliminary results examining the discriminant and convergent validity of theoretical constructs pertinent to theories for the causes of crime using data from Washington, D.C. will be presented.
This was certainly an over-ambitious abstract (I was still in the process of writing my prospectus when I submitted it). The bulk of the talk will be focused on “What we can learn from small units of analysis?”, and as of now after that as time allows I will present some illustrations of the change of support problem. Sorry to dissapoint, but nothing about convergent or divergent validity of spatial constructs will be presented (I have done no work of interest yet, and I don’t think I would have time to present any findings in anymore than a superficial manner anyway).
Note don’t be scared off by how dull the working paper is, the presentation will certainly be more visual and less mathematical (I will need to update my dissertation to incorporate some more graphical presentations).
Maps and graphis at the end of the talk demonstrating the change of support problem are still in the works (and I will continue to update the presentation on here). Here is a preview though of the first map I made that demonstrates how D.C. disseminates geo-date aggregated and snapped to street segments, making it problematic to mash up with census data.
The presentation time is on Friday at 9:30, and I’m excited to see the other presentations as well. It looks like to me that Pizarro et al.’s related research was recently published in Justice Quarterly, so if you don’t care for my presentation come to see the other presenters!
Posted by apwheele on November 4, 2012