Later this week I will be at the American Society of Criminology meetings in D.C. I am presenting some of the work from my dissertation on the correlation between 311 calls for service and crime as a test of the broken windows thesis. I have an updated pre-print on SSRN based on some reviewer feedback, the title is
The Effect of 311 Calls for Service on Crime in D.C. at Micro Places
and here is the structured abstract:
Objectives: This study tests the broken windows theory of crime by examining the relationship between 311 calls for service and crime at the street segment and intersection level in Washington, D.C.
Methods: Using data on 311 calls for service in 2010 and reported Part 1 crimes in 2011, this study predicts the increase in counts of crime per street unit per additional reported 311 calls for service using negative binomial regression models. Neighborhood fixed effects are used to control for omitted neighborhood level variables.
Results: 311 calls for service based on detritus and infrastructure complaints both have a positive but very small effect on Part 1 crimes while controlling for unobserved neighborhood effects.
Conclusions: Results suggest that 311 calls for service are a valid indicator of physical disorder where available. The findings partially confirm the broken windows hypothesis, but reducing physical disorder is unlikely to result in appreciable declines in crime.
Not in the paper (but in my presentation), here is the marginal relationship between infrastructure related 311 complaints and crime
I am presenting the paper on Wednesday at 11 am. The panel title is Environmental Approaches to Crime Prevention and Intervention, and it is located at Hilton, E – Embassy, Terrace Level. There are two other presentations as well, all related to the spatial analysis of crime. (Kelly Edmiston has followed up and stated he can not make it.)
I will be in D.C. from Wednesday until Friday afternoon, so if you want to get together in that time frame feel free to send me an email.